The Predictioneer's Game
Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
By: Bruce Bueno De Mesquita
Published: September 29, 2009
Format: Hardcover, 272 pages
ISBN: 978-1-4000-6787-9
Publisher: Random House
"Decision making is the last frontier in which science has been locked out of government and business", writes specialist in policy forecasting and Julius Silver Professor of Politics at New York University Bruce Bueno De Mesquita in his landmark book The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future. The author provides the theoretical and practical framework, for the successful application of game theory in government and business policy planning, to forecast in advance a policy's eventual outcome.
Bruce Bueno De Mesquita turns the seeming mysteries of game theory mathematics into easy to understand policy development tools. Because game theory is about how people compete with one another, while acting in their own self interest, the author demonstrates how game theory can predict outcomes of events. At the same time, that understanding of how people will behave, can be used effectively to create a more satisfactory result for all concerned. When the science of game theory is utilized, it allows decision makers to take a more objective and strategic approach to solving problems. By recognizing the motivation, relative power, and desired result of the other decision makers involved, the policy maker can examine the issue from the opponents' point of view. That insight can help the policy maker anticipate moves in advance and create outcomes that take those possible counter moves into account.
Bruce Nueno De Mesquita (photo left) takes the power of computer modeled game theory beyond simply understanding how events will occur in the real world. Instead, the author proposes game theory as a basis for engineering suitable outcomes that reduce risk of war and conflict. In business game theory applications, understanding the true desires of the people involved, will provide a more effective and satisfactory solution to the problem. The use of game theory in settling lawsuits, in a way that benefits all of the interested parties, is outlined in the book through a case study. In international relations, Bruce Bueno De Mesquita provides powerful examples of how game theory forecast event outcomes well in advance of their actual timing. At the same time, the author provides some potential scenarios where game theory can create a workable solution, that is self reinforcing, for several seemingly unsolvable issue in international relations.
For me, the power of the book is the recognition that people, whether in business, legal or political settings, will always act in their own self interest. That insight, that people are much the same everywhere in the world, provides a firm foundation for utilizing game theory computer models to predicting events before they ever happen in real time. The author also recognizes that game theory, as demonstrated by the well known Prisoner's Dilemma game, takes a rather dim view of human nature. Precisely because people will act in what they believe is their best interest, game theory can predict accurately how the various stakeholders will behave in any given set of circumstances. That knowledge can be used reliably by the policy makers to develop a course of action that will create a positive outcome because people will take the action that they feel is best for themselves.
I highly recommend the fascinating and definite must read book The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future by Bruce Nueno De Mesquita, to anyone seeking to understand the reasoning behind the use of game theory to predict events. For anyone in government, law, business, politics or academia, the ability within the game theory modeling algorithm to forecast the future through understanding of human self interest, is a powerful tool with unlimited applications. The self reinforcing aspect of the mathematical models, because people do compete and act in their own interest, can be used to create workable and beneficial results in a wide variety of domestic and international situations.
Read the revolutionary policy decision making book The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future by Bruce Nueno De Mesquita, and put the power of mathematical game theory to use in all aspects of government, business, and law. The author demonstrates how to predict the probability of accounting fraud, how to get the best deal on a car, and how to create a win-win result in a lawsuit. These are only a few of the powerful uses of game theory. The applications are endless, and bounded only by our imagination. Become a predictioneer, and predict or even create event outcomes before they happen. This book is the guide you need to perhaps even change the world.
